European leaders are gathering in Armenia, a country once considered Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus, for two unprecedented summits. This gathering is a significant shift in dynamics, as Armenia now seeks to strengthen its ties with the European Union (EU) while maintaining its relationship with Russia. The question arises: How did Armenia, deeply embedded in Russia's orbit, end up hosting Europe's leaders?
The turning point was Armenia's 2023 war with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's military operation to take over Nagorno-Karabakh expelled over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Russia, which had peacekeepers on the ground, stood aside, indicating a failure in the security architecture. This realization sparked a public demand for closer relations with the EU, as evidenced by Armenia's parliament passing a law to initiate the EU membership process in March 2025.
The EU's role in brokering a border recognition deal and deploying a civilian monitoring mission has shifted perceptions and demonstrated a willingness to intervene. This has accelerated the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the announcement of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a major connectivity corridor. However, the peace process remains fragile, and Europe's embrace of Armenia has diplomatic costs.
Azerbaijan's parliament suspended ties with the European Parliament over a resolution calling for the right of return for Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and the release of Armenian prisoners. Russia, meanwhile, has watched Armenia's warming relations with the EU with irritation. During a meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, President Vladimir Putin highlighted the incompatibility of EU and Eurasian Economic Union membership. Russia has also employed hybrid threats, such as banning Armenian mineral water imports and halting Armenian trucks at the Georgian-Russian border, to pressure Armenia.
The EU has responded with a new civilian mission to counter Russian disinformation, cyberattacks, and illicit financial flows, particularly ahead of Armenia's parliamentary elections in June. This mission is modeled on similar EU deployments in Moldova and Romania, where pro-EU forces held on to power. However, the EU's commitment to Armenia remains uncertain, with no timeline for membership, defense commitments, or a plan to replace Russian gas.
Armenia's 'balancing act' between Russia and the West is far from over. The country's democratic institutions are under pressure, and foreign interference, disinformation, and political polarisation online are concerns ahead of the June elections. While European leaders are heading to Yerevan with promises of civilian missions and visa liberalisation, the future of Armenia's relationship with the EU and Russia remains uncertain.
